An exciting showdown is set for Tuesday’s men’s quarter-final as Grigor Dimitrov faces Frances Tiafoe. Tennis expert Gavin Mair shares his prediction.
- Dimitrov back in form
- Tiafoe inspired in his house
- 6/4 pick for mini-Federer to reach the semi-final
This has arguably been the best 12 months of Grigor Dimitrov’s career. The Bulgarian, once touted as the heir apparent to the great Roger Federer has blown hot and cold over the course of his career.
The 2017 season was his most successful, triumphing in the Masters event in Cincinnati and the year end ATP Finals. However, he has not been successful at maintaining good years across his career.
The past 12 months have been the most consistent since he started playing and he is on the verge of matching his career best showing at the US Open.
Since December, Dimitrov has competed in the significant tour finals of the Paris Masters and the Miami Open, while winning a title in Brisbane and appearing in the quarter-final of both the French Open and here in New York.
He starts as favourite to make the semi-final at the expense of Frances Tiafoe and I think he has enough about him to get the job done.
Dimitrov In Good Rhythm
After a strong start to 2024, 33-year old Dimitrov dipped in level over the last few months. But in New York he has rediscovered the touch he was showing in the early part of the season.
Dimitrov has been playing high quality stuff on a hard court this year and it has usually taken a strong opponent to defeat him. He has beaten both Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz this season, and got the better of Andrey Rublev in the previous round.
The Bulgarian impressively got under the skin of Rublev, who remonstrated to his team that he couldn’t handle his opponent’s slice, and eventually injured himself with a frustrated swipe of his racket.
Underlining his good form is the strength of his serve having lost only 12 points behind his first delivery over his first three matches.
Against Rublev he started strongly before the determined Russian fought his way back into the contest. Dimitrov used his experience to manage the ups and downs of his opponent, ultimately waiting for Rublev to dip before the decisive strike to get over the line in the fifth set.
I remember watching the previous match between Dimitrov and Tiafoe and it was a complete beatdown by the Bulgarian in the third round of Wimbledon last year.
It was a perfect performance from Grigor, and a complete off-day for the American. Tiafoe said after that meeting, «I couldn’t hit the room or make him play. It is tough to digest. I’ve never really felt like this after a loss. I’m shocked by how I performed. I played horrendously and it is unacceptable to get broken that many times on grass. I’m shocked how I performed today.»
While Tiafoe is right to state that he didn’t play well, Dimitrov more than played his part in carving him up.
Overall, with Dimitrov serving as well as he is, showing the confident form from the start of the year and with the domination of their previous meeting I think the Bulgarian should win here.
Tiafoe’s House
I certainly don’t expect it to be as one-sided as it was at Wimbledon this time around.
Tiafoe is playing the best tennis of his season at the US Open, impressively seeing off both Alexei Popyrin and Ben Shelton.
If it hadn’t had been under the lights of Arthur Ashe stadium you would question whether Tiafoe would have found the energy he needs to get through those assignments. Tiafoe has been inspired by the atmosphere of this event and celebrated to the crowd after he toughed out the win over Shelton by chanting ‘It’s my house’.
This is essentially the equivalent of a home fixture for Tiafoe and it should boost his chances here against Dimitrov, especially as the Bulgarian opened the door in his match against Rublev from a comfortable leading position.
However, I still think that Dimitrov will escape with victory even if it isn’t quite the clean kill of Wimbledon. Dimitrov to win and both players to win a set is the play at 6/4.